A version of this post originally appeared on Candy Noble’s personal blog.

Today I’m going to give you an update on the Texas GOP and also give you my version of “Presidential Primary 101”. I’ve been asked to give this speech so much that I thought I’d just share it with you in writing.

First the Republican Party of Texas news:
There are 87 Counties in Texas where Republicans will win the November election because not one Democrat filed for local office. There are less than 10 Counties without Republicans on the local ballot.

There is still one poor county that doesn’t have a Republican Chairman: Foard County (Crowell is the county seat). This entire county has less population than one Collin or Dallas County Precinct. If you know any good Republicans there, let us know.

The Texas GOP is holding online training for Precinct Chairman on how to conduct your Precinct Convention. The webinar is limited to 500 participants each time, so if you need the training, be sure and sign up right away. Click on the date below to sign up:

If you would like to work either Early Voting or on the March 1 Primary day, let your County Party know. We need all hands on deck to cover all the voting locations. You must be a registered voter in the County to participate (and of course a Republican), or a 16-17 year old who is a resident of the county. It pays a little bit, but it really is a service to America for you to make sure our Primary Election is fair, honest and runs smoothly.

The Texas GOP is looking for some College Interns. Some spots are available to work from around the state, and others must live in Austin. Have them contact the Texas GOP for more information.

Some election dates to remember:
This Monday, February 1 is the last day to register to vote.

Early voting it begins Tuesday, February 16 and runs through Friday, February 26.

If you need a ballot by mail, the request must RECEIVED (not postmarked) by February 19.

At Precinct Conventions you will start the process of determining what you would like for our Texas Platform to include and you will elect Delegates to the Senatorial Convention. By the way, each Precinct gets one Delegate to the Senatorial Convention for every 25 voters who voted for Governor Greg Abbott in the last General Election. 

Dallas and Denton County Republican Voters will have their Precinct Conventions on March 1 after the polls close at their neighborhood precinct polling location. Collin County Republican Voters will hold all their Precinct Conventions on Saturday, March 5 at Collin College in Frisco. (Invite your friends on Facebook!)

All Counties in Texas will hold their Senatorial Convention onSaturday, March 19. You must be elected to be a Delegate from your Precinct Convention to be a voting attendee. Each Senatorial Convention will elect their Delegates and Alternates to the State Convention, and will vote on Resolutions that they would like to see included (or deleted) from the Texas Republican Platform. (Add to your Facebook Calendar: SD 8  — SD 30)

The Texas GOP Convention will be held Thursday, May 12- Saturday May 14. This is when we elect our Delegates and Alternates to the National Convention, adopt our State Platform and our governing Rules, and elect our Party leadership.

I’d like to invite you to attend the Prestonwood Baptist Church Candidate Forum on Monday, February 1. This forum includes contested races from Collin and Denton Counties. It will be a little different: several Democrats have said they are coming, along more than 30 Republican Candidates. Candidate Meet & Greet is at 5:30and the Forum begins at 6:30pm at 6801 W Park, Plano.

Now for my version of “Presidential Primary 101” .

Not one vote has yet been cast in a Presidential Primary. Don’t let the press (and opinion polls) fool you. I was amazed to get my January 18 Time Magazine in the mail with the cover saying “How Trump Won” and in tiny letters “Now he just needs the votes”. In fact, polls are less and less reliable as people move away from home phones (how polling data has been traditionally collected). In the November Kentucky’s gubernatorial race the polling outcomes were off by at least 11 points, and predicted the wrong winner. Don’t fall for it. Every single vote is important to the candidates. Make sure your voice is heard.

There is a lot up for grabs. There are a total of 2472 Delegates that will decide our Republican Presidential candidate, so 1237 are needed for a single candidate to win the nomination. Not one of those Delegates has been promised to a Candidate as of yet.

For the Democrats, there are a total of 4,764 Delegates, so a single candidate needs 2,383 Delegates to win their nomination. The Democrats also have “Super Delegates” who are not tied to Primaries or Caucus voters, but may pick whomever they want. The “Super Delegates” include members of the DNC, Democratic members of Congress, Democratic Governors and Distinguished party leaders (such as former Presidents or Vice Presidents). This makes me wonder who former President Bill Clinton has promised his vote to. After looking at the DNC formula for Delegates, I know who wrote the tax code. Talk about complicated.

Some States hold Primaries, some hold Caucuses. A Primary is a secret ballot election, and that is how we do it in Texas. A Caucus is more like a political convention where those attending openly talk about who they are supporting and divide into groups based on their Candidate choice. Not all states hold their Republican and Democratic votes on the same day. Each State or Territory decides their own Delegate selection process.

Iowa’s first with a February 2 Caucus, followed by New Hampshire’s Primary on February 9, and South Carolina and Nevada on February 23. By the end of February only a total of 133 Republican and 186 Democratic delegates will have been decided.

Texas- along twelve other states- comes next, with a March 1 Primary. Texas, with our 155 Republican Delegates and 222 Democratic Delegates can out-vote every one of those 4 early states in one day.
There are 13 Republican Candidates that will be on our ballot, or you may vote for “Uncommitted” as your Presidential choice. By the way, there are 8 Presidential Candidates that will be on the Texas Democratic Primary ballot.

Texas is considered a “Winner take most” Primary State. Each Texas Republican National Delegate is told who they will vote for at the National Convention’s first round of voting based on the votes cast in the Primary. For 108 Delegates the candidate they represent will be decided by their local Congressional District voters. There are 36 Texas Congressional Districts, and each district gets 3 Delegates. If a single candidate gets 50% of the vote in that Congressional District, then all three of the Delegates will vote for that candidate in the first round of voting at the National Convention. If the highest candidate gets only 20% to 49% he or she will get two Delegates. If no one candidate gets 20%, then the top three vote-getters each get one Delegate. The 47 At Large Delegates will use the same formula based on the state-wide vote.  In a Brokered National Convention” (where no one candidate has the needed 1236 Delegates) things change quickly after that first round of voting, so it is important who each Delegate personally supports.

It is numerically impossible for any one candidate from either party to win their party’s nomination before the night of March 15. On that day the 50% threshold of Delegates up for grabs will have been determined by individual states. And that is if ONE candidate gets all the available Delegates. By then 36 States and Territories will have held a Republican Caucus or Primary.

Over the course of the next couple of months, Candidates will find it more and more expensive to campaign in a widening number of states and to keep their momentum going. The sad truth is that we let the press make a “Self-fulfilling prophecy” come true for us if we don’t go vote.

I’m determined that the press and pollsters will not determine my Presidential Candidate for me. I’m going to go vote. I hope you do too.

By the way, there are only 283 days till November 8. Let’s move from just being busy to making an impact. The world depends on us.

Candy Noble
State Republican Executive Committee
Senate District 8
[email protected]

PS: I am honored to serve you on the State Republican Executive Committee. Thank you for that privilege.